Top Dogs: Sunday Statistics Post - Sun, Apr. 21, 2019

3.5 weeks into the season with a +15% ROI

Hi everyone,

Welcome to our 3rd Sunday Statistic post.  This one is coming out a little late. Easter was busy today. So much chocolate.

Our 2019 MLB Season unit balance (so far) now stands a little over +170 units.

If you get the premium version of our daily emails (which has how many units to bet on each game), you’ve made a very nice profit so far, in just 3 weeks!

  • If your units are $1, you’re up $170

  • If your units are $10, you’re up $1,700

  • If your units are $100, you’re up $17,000

These Sunday posts will get larger as the MLB season progresses (and we get into the NHL and the NBA in the fall), and is basically where I’ll post more detailed statistics that I’ll keep out of the daily email to keep those ones fairly short.

Overall Stats:

It’s good to see how we’re doing overall. When I tested this system using the 2018 MLB season, the ROI hovered around 10% (with obvious fluctuations as underdogs had mini-winning and losing streaks), so I expect the same will happen this year.

Added in a version of our current overall balance vs. daily spend graph as it looked nice with our overall stats.

The Daily Graphs:

These are the ones I include in every email:

TABLES: Spends, Profit/Loss, ROI:

GRAPHS: Overall Unit Balance vs Daily Units Spent:

Last 7 Days, and since the start of the MLB season:

GRAPHS: Daily Unit Profit or Loss:

Last 7 Days and a waterfall chart of the season:

GRAPHS: Daily Return on Investment %:

Last 7 Days, and our season ROI as the season progresses:

Extra Graphs not in the Daily Email:

Still developing these, and will add more as the MLB season progresses (and as baseball ends and hockey and basketball seasons start), so we can see more and more data of what is happening over the long term.

Weekly Performance:

Now that we’re over 3 weeks into baseball, we can start compiling how our system is doing week to week instead of just day to day. I’ll eventually be adding monthly summaries to this section.

We had a very good Week 1, and so-so Weeks 2 & 3 (but still not too bad, we didn’t lose too much).

Week 4 of the MLB season (which we are halfway through currently) is shaping up to be substantially profitable.

Next, the same thing, but in a “Waterfall Chart” format, which are handy for seeing gains vs losses and how they make up the total.

And here’s Return on Investment, by week:

Team Performance:

I’ve started looking at how each team has been performing for us, and I’ve included tables below that show how much profit (or loss) we’ve made from each team.

I’ve updated the tables that show the return on investment for each MLB team.

I may add an ROI change column into these tables in the future.

There are some interesting movements in the tables below. For example, the Blue Jays, last week, had been big enough underdogs for us to bet on them 7 times, and they were 2W-5L on those bets at that time (for an ROI of 6.90%), and their offense was almost non-existent. In the past week, they’ve been underdogs for us 5 times, and they’ve won 4 of those games and their ROI is now 32.31%.

Here are our profitable teams (so far), ranked by ROI%.

And, here’s the same table but for teams with negative ROI for us (so far):

Future Graphs:

I have a few more interesting graphs planned for future editions of this Sunday Stats post:

  • Longer term data, as we get to the 30, 60, and 90-day marks of the MLB season

  • Season long trends (for instance, for the 6 big underdogs we bet on every day, how often does it happen that none win? That only 1 wins? 2? 4? ALL?)

  • Line data - I’m very interested in exploring this… this will ideally show, at every betting line, how much we’ve bet, won or lost, etc. with this system

Basketball & Hockey

As the baseball season progresses and we get closer to the fall, Top Dogs will have basketball and hockey stuff here… I’ve been collecting all kinds of data during the 2018-19 hockey and basketball seasons and am developing some great systems for them (so we can continue our profit-making in the baseball off-season). I’ll be sharing a lot of analysis and results from my testing.

See you tomorrow. Have a great Sunday.